The no confidence motion which will be presented against Minister John Amaratunga is likely to be the litmus test on the Parliamentary strength of the government and the opposition.

Leader of the Opposition Nimal Siripala de Silva said the opposition intended to present a no confidence motion against Amaratunga over his failure to prevent attacks on supporters of the opposition and local government representatives.

Opposition Leader, in his statement to Parliament today, said that Minister Amaratunga’s conduct in connection with recent incidents which occurred in several local government authorities have proven that the latter has failed in performing his duties.

The Chairman of Wattala Pradeshiya Sabah was assaulted a few days ago, son after Minister of Public Security, Christian Religious Affairs and Disaster Management Minister John Amaratunga’s visit to the Pradeshiya Sabha premises. It was widely alleged that Amaratunga’s supporters were responsible for the attack.

However, it is still not clear whether the no confidence motion will be taken for vote before April 23 – before the dissolution of Parliament. The motion is yet to be presented to Speaker Chamal Rajapaksa by the opposition.

On the surface, it looks as if the opposition can easily get the no confidence motion passed in Parliament as it has a clear majority in Parliament. However, it all depends on the size of the UPFA MP group “wholeheartedly” supporting President Maithripala Sirisena and his 100 day programme. One should be mindful of the fact that a sizable proportion of SLFP MPs are still supporting former President Mahinda Rajapaksa although the latter has stepped down from the party leadership.

If President Sirisena takes a stand against the no confidence motion the group supporting him will also vote against the motion along with MPs of the UNP and other parties supporting the government. It will show whether President Sirisena has a workable majority in parliament in a realistic sense.

If President Sirisena, as the leader of the SLFP, manages to nip the co-confidence motion in the bud, he will be able to avoid the ‘majority’ problem and proceed with his 100 day programme which will end with the dissolution of Parliament on April 23.