The leader of Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has expressed confidence in victory as Iraqi forces entered the city of Mosul where he declared a “caliphate” two years ago.

“This … total war and the great jihad that the Islamic State is fighting today only increases our firm belief, God willing, and our conviction that all this is a prelude to victory,” said a voice purporting to be that of Baghdadi lreleased early on Thursday by the IS-affiliated Al-Furqan media.

“Do not retreat ... Holding your ground with honour is a thousand times easier than retreating in shame,” he said in the message, his first since December 2015.

“To all the people of Nineveh, especially the fighters, beware of any weakness in facing your enemy,” Baghdadi said, referring to the northern Iraqi province of which Mosul is the capital. The audio message does not refer to Mosul specifically.

In June 2014, days after jihadist fighters swept across swathes of Iraq, Baghdadi made a rare public appearance in Mosul and announced the creation of an Islamic “state” straddling Iraq and Syria.

The “caliphate” has been shrinking steadily since last year and Iraqi forces earlier this week reached Mosul, the jihadists’ last major stronghold in Iraq.

Rumours have abounded about the Iraqi jihadist leader’s health and movements but his whereabouts are unclear.

In his latest message, which is undated but refers to the death of a senior Isis leader, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani who was killed in Syria in August, Baghdadi calls for attacks against Saudi Arabia – a favourite target of his – and Turkey.

Ankara has troops stationed at a base just outside Mosul and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s escalating rhetoric has raised fears of a unilateral Turkish intervention in Iraq.

Baghdadi told fighters to “unleash the fire of their anger” on Turkish troops fighting them in Syria, and to take the battle into Turkey.

“Turkey today entered your range of action and the aim of your jihad ... invade it and turn its safety into fear,” the recording says.

Baghadi told his followers to launch “attack after attack” in Saudi Arabia, targeting security forces, government officials, members of the ruling al-Saud family and media outlets, for “siding with the infidel nations in the war on Islam and the Sunna [Sunni Muslims] in Iraq and Syria”. 

Baghdadi also said that his followers who could not travel to Syria or Iraq should aim for Libya and urged all Isis fighters to remain united in adversity.

He attempted to stir up sectarian resentment by referring to religious flags and slogans of Shiite fighters among the Iraqi forces and by accusing the country’s Sunni politicians of treason.

The US-led coalition estimates there are 3,000 to 5,000 Isis fighters inside Mosul but the final outcome of the battle appears to be in little doubt.

Tens of thousands of Iraqi forces, backed by the US-led coalition and its warplanes, launched a huge offensive on the city on 17 October.

IS has had a tendency to fall back when outnumbered, giving up bastions such as Fallujah in Iraq and Dabiq in Syria despite its apocalyptic rhetoric of fighting to the bitter end.

The recapture of Mosul by Iraqi forces could spell the end of the group’s days as a land-holding force in Iraq. Forces advancing on three main fronts have retaken dozens of villages and towns scattered over hundreds of square miles in just over two weeks.

Earlier this week, federal forces reached the eastern edge of Mosul and on Wednesday were clearing the most recently reconquered areas to set up a breach of the city.

(The Guardian)