A betel leaf versus a swan. As many as 15 million Lankans will go to polling booths Thursday to tick either symbol and therewith choose a president  -  either incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa or his erstwhile health minister Maithripala Sirisena. The former is hoping to win an unprecedented third term.

When Rajapaksa last November announced elections two years before they were due, few were surprised.

After all, he was the first president to achieve what none of his predecessors had. He brought the 30-year long civil war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to an end in 2009.

The country's ravaged north and east saw astounding development with highways, railroads and other essential services in place. A third term seemed assured.

In the meanwhile, charges of corruption, nepotism and an amassment of personal wealth cropped up against Rajapaksa and many members of his family.

Still, given Rajapaksa's huge support base in the Sinhalese south, his re-election seemed easy.

But, on November 22 last year, things took a dramatic turn. Sirisena crossed over to the opposition.

A stream of departures followed, including that of two Sinhalese nationalist parties and a Muslim party. Former president Chandrika Kumaratunga, too, came out of retirement to lend support to Sirisena's New Democratic Front (NDF).

And just last week, came the most surprising announcement of support: the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), which had never backed any party of the 'Colombo old guard' with a Sinhalese voter base.

There have been no credible opinion polls so far, and both sides claim they will win.

But even if Sirisena does, how are Tamil nationalists who want maximum self-rule in the north and east going to see eye-to-eye with Sinhalese nationalists who are bent on not giving it to them? How are Muslim parties going to break bread with Buddhist clerics after last year’s growing attacks by rightwing Buddhist monks upon minority Muslims?

"Having these parties together is precisely the way to resolve issues," opposition leader and chief architect of the NDF, Ranil Wickremasinghe, told HT. "This is not just about toppling Rajapaksa but restoring a multi-party democracy."

In the days before the poll, several incidents of shoot-outs and intimidation towards the oppositional coalition were reported from across the country. Election observers from several countries including India received hundreds of complaints.

India's former election commission chief SY Quraishi, heading an 11-man team of election monitors, told HT from Jaffna that there were some stray incidents of violence and fraud in the TNA-ruled Northern Province but the mood was upbeat.

"Some ruling party supporters here were distributing copies of ballot papers which is illegal," Quraishi said, "Then, there were some papers on which the opposition's symbol of the swan had been changed to a three-wheeler in an obvious attempt to confuse voters."

But, he added reports of the army trying to prevent Tamils from voting were "distorted".

A day before the election, the atmosphere at Sirisena's residence was charged, and a little chaotic with swarms of supporters thronging his office.

Through his media advisor, he responded to questions on what his victory would do for Tamils as well as India's concerns on Chinese presence in Lanka. "We are not focussing on either issue but on a resounding victory right now. But I'll say this: India was, is and will remain our first concern."
(Hindustan Times)